Market mood
Index direction, stock participation and sector leadership at the Friday close.
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Earnings in the next 4 weeks
Index direction
SPY tracks the S&P 500 · QQQ tracks the Nasdaq-100
How many stocks rose?
Where stock returns fell
Return bands · share of each group
Which sectors led?
Median stock return · sorted by eligible median
n = stocks behind each median · shared return scale · sectors use the shared Nasdaq industry map.
What these charts measure
Returns use adjusted closes over 63 or 252 trading sessions. Each stock has equal weight in participation, the distribution and sector medians; index funds have their own weights. The median is the middle stock return. Eligible is the liquid universe with both return windows. On lists is the union of this week's Hot tape, Growth and Cheap names (rule-selected, so it can look stronger or weaker than the full eligible set). Stocks missing either return window are excluded from both windows. Today's lists are selected partly using these past returns: this describes their current composition, not how a previously selected portfolio performed.
Prices: saved Yahoo Finance captures (SPY · QQQ). Volatility: Cboe VIX history. VIX measures expected 30-day S&P 500 volatility in index points. The Shortlist line counts this week's Shortlist (names on two or more of Hot tape, Growth and Cheap); List check describes the lists before the month-end decision. Earnings dates: Yahoo Finance's earnings calendar (company pages fill gaps), refreshed Tuesday and Friday; a date can move until the company confirms it. For planning, not a signal: our test found no price drift after results. This page describes saved observations, not a forecast.
What the lists hold
Four checks on this week’s Hot tape, Growth, Cheap and Shortlist: what they are made of, whether their names still trend, how much they changed since the last month-end, and when they report. Descriptions, not forecasts; the names themselves are on Research.
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What the lists are made of
Share of each list in each sector, against the eligible universe. A darker cell is a bigger share; ×n marks a sector holding at least 10% of a list and at least twice its eligible share.
Do list names still trend?
In our test (entries 2021–26, stocks of similar size compared, before costs), stocks with each rule up beat those with it down by 3.0–3.6% over six months. Hot tape is chosen on price, so it is mostly up by construction; Cheap and the Shortlist are the rows to read.
What changed since the last month-end
| List | Then | Now | Kept | New | Dropped | Kept share |
|---|
Results around the decision
Forward tests
What is being recorded, and when it can first be read. Interim returns are not shown: each test is read at its pre-registered horizon.
All — Shortlist names with their scores are on Research; analysts’ view of each list is on Analyst ratings.